Ron Walters

Most of the hesitancy about Obama being elected has focused on his lack of experience and some, like Andy Young, have said that he may be ready in 2012, cover for a Hillary vote. But this is wishful thinking because you can't manufacture a candidacy to fit the time and place you want. For all that Rev. Al Sharpton and Ambassador Carol Moseley Braun promised, it just wasn't their time in 2004.

This is Obama's time not because he is telegenic and promises a new day, but he is otherwise qualified and represents a new direction on the war, not on race relations. If there were no war in Iraq, there would be no Barack Obama. He is not challenging whites to make racial change.

Americans are thirsting for a change with respect to the war and he promises it most. So, who knows whether the conditions in 2012 would favor his candidacy? What we know is that he is there now and what the numbers are telling us is that he could win.

It gets even better. Obama is leading in Iowa polls slightly better than Hillary Clinton. But the big news is that he is leading among "second chance" voters.

In the Iowa caucuses, if you are in a precinct and the person you are supporting for president doesn't have 15 percent of those present, people must switch to others - a second chance. If Obama is coming in first among second chance voters, it means that he will have more of a chance to win. Add to this the fact that Obama has 37 offices on the ground and thus, more than any other candidate, his organization is positioned to pull out the voters to the caucuses.

So, if Obama wins Iowa, I could see a scenario that causes voters in New Hampshire to reevaluate the lead they are giving to Hillary Clinton right now and especially for Blacks to do so in South Carolina. I agree with Rep. Jim Clyburn that "if Obama wins Iowa, he will run away with South Carolina."

Why? There is this deep-seated thing among Black people, born of their experience with American racism, which informs them that it is unlikely that whites will support a Black man for president at the end of the day. I feel this too; how can you deny your experiences.

Barack and Michelle Obama with their daughters, Sasha, 5, and Malia, 8 Photo: Reuters

In this, I also agree with my "evil twin" Ron Daniels: When you line up Barack and Hillary, Barack is better for Black folks, so do you vote for your true choice or the tactical choice of someone you think may be worse than Barack but who can get through the door of the White House?

This is a classic choice for Blacks. I call it the "structure of choice" in American politics that most of the time finds that Blacks have to support someone for president who is much less than they would want in terms of either personality or their stand on the issues. Barack isn't the perfect choice either, but he is so far better than Hillary that to vote for anyone else would dissipate Black political power. For us, this choice is as good as it's going to get.

I have been concerned about the pure democracy that many want to exercise in this vote, so much they have taken their eye off the prize. Blacks can decide who the Democratic nominee of the party will be if they vote in large numbers for a single candidate.

This is the gift that the civil rights movement has given us - the person, the moment and the causes - but we don't have a strategy. Should we turn away from this historical commitment for "tactical reasons" - much of which is based either on fear or personal aggrandizement - or do what is right? If you want a Black president of the United States and you get someone in this position and don't support them, you will never get one.

Dr. Ron Walters is the Distinguished Leadership Scholar, Director of the African American Leadership Center and Professor of Government and Politics at the University of Maryland College Park. His latest book is "Freedom Is Not Enough: Black Voters, Black Candidates and American Presidential Politics" (Rowman and Littlefield).

The Obama factor: Can a ‘Brotha' win?

A little more than a month ago, Mumia Abu-Jamal wrote a column with the headline shown above. Since then, the outlook has become much more favorable for Barack Obama, making Mumia's advice even wiser. Here's an excerpt:

"The early primaries, in the predominantly white Northeast and Midwest, will tell the tale. In Iowa, according to early reports, Obama is leading Clinton, albeit barely.

"The question that really dogs the Obama campaign isn't ‘Is he Black enough?' but ‘Can he win?'
"Several weeks ago the Washington Post printed a piece on musings by Black women in a South Carolina beauty shop. South Carolina is particularly relevant because it is, of all U.S. states, the Blackest state, with its 30 percent population, and nearly 50 percent of the state's votes. A young Obama volunteer speaks with a 50-ish accountant, who expresses a view that goes much farther than the Palmetto State:

"'I'm voting for him. I'm old school; I know what's going on. He's trying to take this country someplace it's never been before. It's going to take a lot for him to win, I know that. I know the system is not set up for him to win. It's going to take a miracle and a lot of prayers for him to win. If you can get us to vote.'"

California primary election Feb. 5

Primaries aren't being held only in the Northeast and Midwest. The California primary is just a month away, on Tuesday, Feb. 5. The last day to register to vote in this primary election is Jan. 22. Early voting at San Francisco City Hall starts Jan. 7.

If you want to vote for Sen. Barack Obama, you don't need to be registered as a member of the Democratic Party. You can register without stating a party preference - you can be what's called a "decline-to-state" voter. Then, when you vote, simply request a Democratic ballot.
If, like the woman in the South Carolina beauty shop, you want Barack to "take this country someplace it's never been before," start today to convince everyone you know to register and VOTE.
As Ron Walters said, "Blacks can decide who the Democratic nominee of the party will be if they vote in large numbers for a single candidate."

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